| Single Family | Condo | |
|---|---|---|
| Total Sales | 2609 | 2586 |
| Median Sale Price | $1.70M | $1.19M |
| Average Sale Price | $2.37M | $1.40M |
| Avg Price / Sq Ft | $1,089 | $1,061 |
| Median Days on Market | 33 days | 44 days |
| Sold Over Asking | 78% | 41% |
| Avg Overbid % | +22.9% | +11.6% |
| Sold Under Asking | 18% | 48% |
| Avg Underbid % | -8.5% | -6.9% |
Single-family homes sell faster and command a premium — but 78% close over asking at an average overbid of +22.9%. Condos offer more negotiating room: 48% sell under asking.
Single-family homes priced at or slightly below market trigger the most competitive bidding. With 78% selling over asking, strategic under-pricing drives the best outcomes.
Where the Market Stands
Spring 2026 is one of the most competitive markets San Francisco has seen in years. Across 16,969 closed sales through April 30, the median price over the last 12 months sits at $1.49M — and this year's sales are running higher, with a YTD median of $1.60M. Homes are selling faster too, averaging just 31 days on market this quarter versus 40 days over the past year. The spring surge is here and it's real.
San Francisco is outperforming the broader national market, and the reason is specific: the AI boom. Tech-sector wealth — equity compensation, liquidity events, and a stock market near all-time highs — is directly flowing into SF home prices and fueling buyer demand that simply doesn't exist at the same intensity in other cities.
What's Driving the Market
The macro picture is a tale of two forces pulling in opposite directions. On the positive side: equities are at new highs, initial jobless claims hit pre-pandemic lows (190,000 in April), and hiring showed signs of life after a slow stretch. On the negative side: inflation has re-accelerated to 3.3% CPI and 3.5% PCE — the highest readings since early 2024 — driven by tariffs, energy costs, and government spending. That combination means the Federal Reserve is not cutting rates anytime soon. The current mortgage rate of around 6.1% is where it will stay.
The other key dynamic is mortgage rate lock-in. Millions of homeowners are sitting on loans at 3–4% and have no incentive to sell into a 6.1% market. That's keeping inventory suppressed and competition elevated. There are also virtually no foreclosures — distressed inventory is not coming to rescue buyers.
If You're Buying a House
Single-family homes are intensely competitive right now. This quarter, 83% of houses sold above asking price, with buyers paying an average of 27.9% over list. If a home is priced at $1.5M, competitive offers are coming in closer to $1.9M. The median sale price for houses this quarter is $2.00M. Noe Valley (median $1.85M), Pacific Heights ($2.30M), and Bernal Heights ($1.48M) are among the most active neighborhoods. Come fully pre-approved and ready to move quickly — well-priced houses are not lasting long.
Do not wait for mortgage rates to drop. Inflation is rising, not falling, and the Fed has no clear path to cuts this year. Buyers who wait for rates to fall will be competing in a market with even more pent-up demand when rates eventually do ease.
If You're Buying a Condo
The condo market is more accessible, but it's tightening fast. This quarter, 58% of condos sold above asking — up sharply from prior periods — with buyers paying an average of 13.7% over list. The quarterly median is $1.30M. South Beach and Nob Hill remain the highest-volume areas. You still have more room to negotiate than with houses, but the window of low competition for condos is closing. If you've been waiting for the right time, this spring is it.
If You're Selling
The market is squarely in your favor. Houses are selling in 27 days on average this quarter, and 83% are closing above list price. Pricing at or just under market to invite multiple offers is the proven strategy — it creates urgency and often results in a final sale well above where you started. Noe Valley, Pacific Heights, and Bernal Heights are commanding the strongest prices. For condos, demand has picked up significantly — 58% are going over asking this quarter, the strongest reading we've seen in this cycle.
Rate lock-in is working for you too: the constrained inventory means buyers have fewer choices, and your well-priced home will stand out.
The Moment You're In
This is peak spring market. Buyer demand is high, inventory is still constrained by rate lock-in, and the competitive dynamics are working strongly in sellers' favor. If you're a buyer, waiting for things to calm down is a real risk — this data shows the market accelerating, not plateauing. Waiting for rate relief is equally risky: higher inflation all but rules out Fed cuts in the near term. If you're a seller, homes listed now through May will see the most buyer attention and the best offer terms of the year.